My sabbatical has enabled me to live life at a slower pace. I always wanted to learn a musical instrument, but somehow I never got around to doing it. Now that I have the time, I signed up for beginner Ukulele classes through the Adult School of the Sunnyvale school district.
The class is taught by a man named Mike, who I’d guess is in his late 50s. In the very first class, after the customary introductions, he told us he’d do his best so that we could play most of the popular songs by the end of the quarter. Then he said he asked ChatGPT for the top 10 songs of all time—and it gave him a list. He handed out a printed page with 10 songs.
I’d point out: he didn’t ask Google. He asked ChatGPT. 🙂
I didn’t read too much into that incident. I thought Mike might be an outlier. Life went on for a few more weeks.
Last Friday, my son’s daycare had extended hours so parents could go on a date night. My wife had been wanting to try a new cocktail bar in Los Gatos called Second Story. We dressed up and headed out. The bar has a speakeasy vibe but is quite upscale. They had a great selection of craft cocktails. What stood out to me was something unique, table-side service for martinis. Naturally, I had to try it. A bartender came to our table with a cart stocked with gin, vodka, vermouth, and several garnishes. She was a young woman, probably in her early 20s. She gave us the option of three martinis and explained each in great detail: the difference between using gin vs. vodka, different olive alternatives, and even a special olive oil used in cocktails. We loved it. I ordered a Dirty Martini. She prepared it, and wow—it tasted really good. My wife asked her how she knew so much about cocktails and ingredients. The bartender said they were trained by the Duke Bar in London – and that she regularly talks to ChatGPT to deepen her knowledge and stay informed. 🙂
I already knew that ChatGPT had traction, but these real-world experiences made it clear: the momentum is real. Ordinary people are switching from saying “I Googled it” to “I asked ChatGPT.” And interestingly, they often don’t seem to think of Google as an AI tool.
But then, what is Google’s equivalent of ChatGPT? I’d say it’s Gemini. So I went to Google Search and asked: “Should I add gin or vodka to my dirty martini?” It returned an AI Overview with a helpful answer along with an option to continue in AI mode. But there was no mention of Gemini. That seemed a bit odd to me.
I am not sure what the branding strategy is here—there is probably a well-thought and strategic reason for this. Google sometimes uses Gemini as the model name powering its products, and sometimes as a standalone AI product name. Nonetheless, it doesn’t seem to be working all that well in terms of earning consumer mindshare. It reminded me of Microsoft, when it was trying to compete with Google: there was “MSN Search” → “Windows Live Search” → “Live Search” → “Bing Search.” It was a confusing branding journey, to say the least.
I am slowly becoming convinced that—with the mindshare and momentum ChatGPT has—it’s their race to lose. If they execute well and keep innovating, they should win.
That said, my newfound confidence in ChatGPT was dampened when I tried to make a logo for a hobby venture I’m planning. Everything was going smoothly—until I asked ChatGPT to generate a logo image. It said it usually takes one minute, but could take two to three minutes under high demand. That was totally fine – I could sip my martini in the meantime 😉
But the image never came.
I kept asking my AI companion, and kept getting polite responses about why it wasn’t ready. I finally got a logo after a couple of hours 🙁
So yes—OpenAI could still lose this if availability becomes an issue, they have frequent denial of service and they can’t keep innovating.
I worked at Google for over eight years. It’s one of the strongest tech companies out there, brimming with talent. Transformer models came from Google Research. And I can say with confidence: Google excels at execution. It knows how to build reliable, high-performance products.
But in this context, it appears to be acting like a tortoise. Then again—the tortoise does win in children’s stories. 🙂
Thanks for the enjoyable read, Manish! Loved your observations on how AI’s ubiquitousness has reached our everyday day lives, from your perspective on the ground floor of its development.
Indeed, the race is not yet won. 🐢🐇
Glad to know that you enjoyed it! Yes, in many ways, the race has just begun—and it’s already showing up in the most unexpected places 🙂 Curious to see how it unfolds from here.
Manish, I am not sure if the race has begun or it has already ended! Chat GPT is not only the first mover into the market, but it also generated an unprecedented buzz about a shift in human computing interaction for search. That itself has generated free publicity and brand recognition for Chat GPT. As for Google pioneering Transformer technology, which is essential for Gen AI, it is a shame that Google could not capitalize on it. As I see the main problem for Gemini is the product design: when compared to other AI search tools, it is verbose and throws a lot of info at the user without focus.
Thanks for sharing your take! I also think that ChatGPT has the first mover advantage and is currently leading in customer mindshare. At this point, I am also personally using it more compared to other AI chatbots. But I do see more issues cropping up with ChatGPT as they are scaling – image generation was one example in the blog post. ChatGPT is currently bleeding money – I don’t believe that subscription based pricing can replace revenue from billions of current Search users. Some other model, perhaps ad-based—will need to be figured out. All this to say, I do think that the race has just started. A company which can figure out all the aspects and build the best product in utility and delight should be able to get ahead.
No comment on the AI stuff but loved the dirty martini story. Our own family J. Bond 😉
Haha, shaken not stirred, right? Glad to know that you liked the story 🙂